What's Next?
What Is AGI, Actually?
Three timelines, five milestones, what would genuinely surprise me — tools for tracking the field.
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Learning Material
4 pagesLesson 9 — What's Next?
Understanding the Complex: What Is AGI, Actually?
As of May 2026
AGI forecasting has a worse track record than most other technology forecasting. The field has been "decades away" from AGI in the 1960s, "ten years away" in the 1980s, and "five years away" in the 2010s. Being calibrated about what we actually know means starting here.
That said, some things can be said with more confidence than others. This lesson separates them.