Four Types of Uncertainty — And What They Mean
Climate Models — How Do We Know What Happens in 2100?
Four uncertainty types: initial conditions, parameters (climate sensitivity), scenarios (SSPs), structural. Where the projection range comes from.
Learning Material
6 pagesLesson 5 — Four Types of Uncertainty — And What They Mean
Understanding the Complex: Climate Models — How Do We Know What Happens in 2100?
When a climate projection says "Boston could be 6–11°F warmer by 2100," that range isn't a sign of failure. It's a sign that the scientists building the projection are being honest about something important: climate projections contain multiple kinds of uncertainty, and they have different sources, different sizes, and different implications for how firmly you should hold the projection.
Understanding the four types is the most useful technical skill this course can give you.