Climate Models — How Do We Know What Happens in 2100?
Understanding the Complex: How does a climate model work — and how much can you actually trust one? The finale of the Understanding the Complex series. 11 lessons, ~150 minutes, free.
Climate Models — How Do We Know What Happens in 2100?
All 11 lessons in order.
What's This Actually About?
Hook: James Hansen's 1988 Senate testimony — and how climate models have changed since.
Why Should I Care?
Three reasons climate models matter beyond science: decision-making, understanding uncertainty, and democratic literacy.
The Basics You Need
Prerequisites: what a model is, radiation balance, greenhouse effect. Anchor: Boston in 2050 introduced.
How a Climate Model Actually Works
Grid cells, time steps, parameterized processes, GCMs. How Boston's current temperature is simulated.
Four Types of Uncertainty — And What They Mean
Four uncertainty types: initial conditions, parameters (climate sensitivity), scenarios (SSPs), structural. Where the projection range comes from.
What Models Can and Can't Do
Global (more reliable) vs. regional projections (less reliable). Extreme events. Tipping points as the blind spot. Boston 2050 fully explained.
Who's Doing This? Why? Who's Paying?
Hansen, Schmidt, Masson-Delmotte, Stocker, Curry (contextualized), Rockström. ECMWF. NOAA, NSF, NASA, EU Climate Mission — exemplarily transparent. As of May 2026.
What's Contested? What Don't We Know?
Four controversies: underestimate or overestimate? Climate sensitivity? Tipping points? Geoengineering (Beutelsbach)?
What's Next?
Five milestones for climate modeling in the coming decades. As of May 2026.
What If...?
Calibrated speculation on model development and climate outcomes — after honest review of past forecast errors in both directions.
What Do You Take Away? — A Series Finale
Six core ideas. Series finale: reflection on the full nine-course arc. Cross-links to all eight previous courses.