What If...?
Climate Models — How Do We Know What Happens in 2100?
Calibrated speculation on model development and climate outcomes — after honest review of past forecast errors in both directions.
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Learning Material
5 pagesLesson 10 — What If...?
Understanding the Complex: Climate Models — How Do We Know What Happens in 2100?
As of May 2026
Everything in this course so far has been about what climate models tell us now, what they do well, and where they're uncertain. This lesson is different. Here we ask: what would the future look like under different trajectories — for the models and the climate system they're trying to understand? These aren't predictions. They're scenarios to think with. Hold them more loosely than the rest of the course.